Ali Reza Jalali
Ph.D. student (Constitutional Law) of Verona’s University (Italy) and a researcher of Eurasia and Mediterranean Studies Center (Italy)
3eme trimestre 2013
Compte tenu de l’importance du pétrole dans l’économie de l’Iran les sanctions ont un effet négatif sur le pays, surtout sur le court terme. Le principal effet est la dévaluation de la monnaie locale, puis la forte hausse de l’inflation, actuellement autour de 30%. Cela s’est traduit par une hausse des prix, qui a causé beaucoup de problèmes, en particulier pour les classes moyennes et pauvres et pour les employés iraniens, mais a profité aux familles les plus riches et certains cercles de la classe moyenne, grâce à la spéculation financière.
En fait, l’Iran ne peut effectuer des transactions bancaires internationales, ou même s’il peut le faire, c’est dans de très mauvaises et difficile conditions. Les sanctions ne sont pas en train d’«enseigner» quelque chose, mais poussent des politiques à promouvoir l’autosuffisance dans le secteur de l’énergie. Sans le secteur pétrolier, l’Iran perd sa principale source de revenus du pays. D’un autre côté, Téhéran est contraint de chercher une alternative au pétrole et l’énergie nucléaire afin de survivre, il est donc candidat historique. Le peuple iranien alors, malgré les difficultés en matière de sanctions, comprend l’irrationalité de ces dernières ce qui a provoqué un sentiment d’injustice généralisée, mais elle a entraîné une augmentation de la haine contre les arrogantes puissances internationales, directement responsables de ces sanctions économiques injustes. Cette situation crée uniquement la haine dans la société iranienne, et non pas contre le régime iranien, mais contre les États-Unis et certains gouvernements européens.
Due to the importance of oil in the Iranian economy, the sanctions have a négative impact on the country especially in the short term. The main effect is the devaluation of the local currency the sharp rise of inflation currently around 30%. This also reflects in a rise in prices which has caused a lot of problems especially for the middle and lower classes, and for the Iranian employees, but has benefitted the wealthiest families and some members of the middle class thanks to financial speculation.
In fact, Iran cannot perform international banking transfers and even if it can, it is done in very poor and difficult conditions. The sanctions are not going to « teach » anything; on the contrary they are pushing towards policies that promote self-sufficiency in the energy sector. Without its oil sector, Iran loses its main source of revenue of the country. On the other side, Teheran is forced to find an alternative to oil and nuclear energy in order to survive; therefore it represents a historic candidate. In its turn, and despite the hardships in terms of sanctions, the Iranian people understand the irrationality of the latter, which has caused a feeling of widespread injustice, triggering an increase of hatred directed against the arrogant internationalpowers, directly responsible for these unjust economic sanctions. This situation only leads to hatred within the Iranian society and not against the Iranian regime, but against the United States and some European Governments.
The sanctions adopted by the so-called international community to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons are not a rational solution to the issue. In addition this fact not prevent Iran from continuing the expansion of its civilian nuclear program, they help to place in a climate of international isolation, mainly from the economic point of view. Moreover, sanctions, being aimed at weakening exports of crude oil, give a greater incentive to Iran to continue and expand its nuclear program. The strong population growth that is going through Iran in recent years has in fact led to more domestic oil consumption with a consequent reduction in exports of the same. The nuclear program would represent an important alternative energy source that would allow Iran to reduce domestic consumption continuing to export oil. There is a fundamental différence between the unilateral sanctions imposed by the U.S. against Iran and those adopted by the United Nations and the European Union. The former do not need any justification, for they are motivated by hostility that exists between the U.S. and Iran, built after the Revolution of 1979. In other words, it is the nature of the Iranian state to justify U.S. sanctions because the United States has an interest in overthrowing the regime in Tehran. The sanctions adopted by the international community have instead another end: pause the program and prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. International bodies have never been able to prove with certainty that the Iranian nuclear program has a military nature. In practice, it calls on Iran to prove his guilt. It is therefore requested the accused to prove one thing that should try the inquisi-tor, but since the latter does not have the evidence, the accused makes this request. What is certain is that the sanctions are not doing to change direction to the Iranian government, which continues to be more determined to achieve self-sufficiency. Ever since the U.S. and some European countries began to fund in 1957, the nu-clear program had the aim of producing an alternative energy source that would reduce Iran’s dependence on the oil sector. From that moment on, all the govern-ments that followed, by King Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeiny and his successors, brought this idea forward with conviction, sensing nuclear power as a long-term investment for Iran’s future. This was confirmed also by the current Iranian leadership. Iran has got approximately 10% of the world reserves of crude oil. Tehran is the second largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia within OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries), exporting about two-thirds of the four million barrels it produces each day. To understand the importance that holds the oil sector within the economy of the country is enough to know that oil exports are headed to 80% of total exports, and that they give rise to 50% of the total revenue from the state. However the world’s oil reserves are quickly drying up, a survey conducted by Jeremy Rifkin estimated that Iranian crude finish in fifty years. The Iranian population has doubled in the last thirty years, leading to a drastic increase in domestic consumption of energy, which specifically depends largely on oil. The point is that Iran, despite being potentially endowed with vast oil resources, it has limited refining capacity and is therefore forced to import large quantities of derivatives, various fuels, petrol and diesel. Although some recent re-forms implemented by the government of Ahmadinejad have improved refining capacity, Iran’s dependence on oil is harmful to the country. In recent years, the EIA (Energy Information Administration) has estimated that imports of refined oil ac-counted for 70% of total imports of the country. Summary, Iran exports a quantity of crude oil equal to 80% of its total exports, and then buy back a significant amount, equivalent to 70% of domestic imports, at a much higher price. Domestic demand not only minimizes the potential gain that oil could lead to the country, but Iran makes inefficient in terms of energy self-sufficiency. This does not mean the U.S. in 1974 supported the ambitions of the King of Iran, who dreamed of developing a nuclear capability equal to 23.000MW. Even if that goal is far today, achieving 6.000MW for next ten years, as repeatedly stated by the current government, would open the door to a new energy source. International sanctions, as well as those decided unilaterally by the U.S., have two main objectives: to block the acquisition of uranium and useful technologies to the nuclear program and isolate Iran with regard to the oil trade. The reason why it was decided to hit the oil sector is the importance that it plays in the economy of Iran. Hitting him in the heart, the government will be forced to meet the demands of the international community if it does not want to lose popular support and destroy the economic system of the country. This is what probably thinks Western governments. In recent years, the Obama administration has dramatically increased the scope of the sanctions policy. And severely punished any person who makes a substantial investment in the petro-chemical industry in Iran, or providing Iran with services, goods, technology, or information relating to the production of oil derivatives, or to contribute in some way to increase the capacity of Iran to import fuel. Considering the importance of oil in the economy of Iran and that domestic demand is not much satisfied by the huge oil reserves that can currently provide, the sanctions are having an adverse effect on the country, especially in the short period. The main effect is the devaluation of the local currency, and then the sharp rise in inflation, currently around 30%. This resulted in an increase in prices, which caused problems especially for lower-middle class and Iranian employees, but has benefited the wealthiest families and certain circles of the middle class, through financial speculation. In fact, Iran cannot make international banking transactions, or even if he can do it, makes in a very bad and difficult conditions. The problem is that damage to the oil sector, will never change mind of Tehran’s government about nuclear program. At this time the oil is not a source of wealth for Iran, but rather a serious problem to be solved. Not having a worthy alternative and not being able to choose, Tehran has no way out. The sanctions are not «teaching» something, but rather are pushing policies to pro-mote self-sufficiency in energy sector. Without the oil sector, Iran loses its main source of income of the country. On the other hand, Tehran is forced to seek an alternative to oil and nuclear energy in order to survive it is therefore historic candidate. Today, more than ever, the nuclear program is the way out of this difficult situation. If the first nuclear power was the solution to the problem of oil, today it has become the only viable alternative. Ahmadinejad’s recent trip to West Africa to sign cooperation agreements in the energy sector proves it. The tour of Iranian President covered Benin, Ghana and Niger states that are among the largest produ-cers of uranium in the world. The agenda of the meeting focused on education, agriculture, but also energy, as said by the Foreign Minister of Benin. The government in Tehran is trying to forge trade pacts and political alliances with states that are part of the Movement of Non-Aligned Countries and anyone who does not support the sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the European Union. Iran is not in a crossroads where he can choose between continuing to suffer the penalties or suspend its program, but is forced to survive and to develop its economy, and thus to create well-being for the population, and to continue on the road of nuclear power. Tehran has always need of nuclear power and the sanctions do nothing, but encourage this need. This is a contradiction because Westerners want that Iran would put an end to its nuclear program, which, however, cannot be suspended because the penalties are blocking the reason why the program exists and that is oil. The nuclear program is not a whim of the government, but a matter of vital importance to the whole country and for the Iranians. I think that the Iranian leaders in the future will not change policy and its nuclear program continue to grow. At this rate will only worsen the climate of hostility that exists between the West and Iran, and the possibility to establish a dialogue and reach an agreement will be shared more and more remote. On the other hand this approach further Iran to countries in Asia, Africa and Central and South Americans, and in fact will lay the foundation for the further development of the multi-polar world, so feared by the U.S.. The Iranian people then, despite the difficulties for sanctions, understands the irra-tionality of the sanctions, and this causes a feeling of injustice widespread, but it has resulted in increased hatred against the arrogant international powers, directly res-ponsible for these unjust economic sanctions. This situation create only hate in Iranian society, not against Iranian regime, but against U.S and some European governments.
