Trump's global strategy and the question of "peace through strength"

Hall GARDNER

Download the article as PDF

Executive summary: The decisions taken by the Trump administration will be decisive in determining whether or not the world is moving towards increased cooperation and more global security. The policy of uncoordinated enlargement (NATO-EU) led to a Russian-Chinese reaction and rapprochement, the opening of new areas of conflict and the polarisation of rival alliances – risks predicted by the author in 2001 in our review. Trump’s strategy differs from that of previous administrations, the latter using the lever of military threats, but also sanctions, customs duties and taxes, or increasing requirements for defence contributions in order to put pressure on rival countries – enemies as allies – to move China and Russia away, reduce military support to Iran and North Korea and to obtain economic concessions. He also promised to reduce the national military budget, but his initiatives seem to contradict that objective. Trump is putting pressure on South Korea and the European Union to increase their military contribution, and on Panama, Denmark (Greenland) and Canada to gain access to resources, as well as control over maritime communication routes and strategic territories. Turkey could be supported in a pro-Atlantic direction to maintain regional stability, and Israel is an exception to the America First doctrine. American diplomacy should aim at a constructive relationship between the United States, Europe, Ukraine and Russia, cooperation with Russia and a peace agreement in Ukraine being likely to prevent direct confrontation or the development of nuclear weapons by Kiev, while helping to resolve other international conflicts.

Keywords: Donald Trump, United States of America, World Security, Peace by Force, Ukraine War, European Union, Europe, NATO, Double Enlargement, European Defence, Russia, Eurasia, China, South Korea, North Korea, Taiwan, Near East, Turkey, Israel, Arctic, Canada, Panama, Greenland, Denmark, Military Expenditures, Customs duties, Taxes, Cooperation, International Relations, Trade War, International Conflicts.

Abstract: The decisions made by the Trump administration will be decisive in determining whether the world moves toward greater cooperation and greater global security. The policy of uncoordinated enlargement (NATO-EU) has led to a Russian backlash and a Russian-Chinese rapprochement, the opening of new conflict zones, and the polarization of rival alliances—risks predicted by the author as early as 2001 in our journal. Trump’s strategy differs from that of previous administrations, using the lever of military threats, but also sanctions, tariffs, and taxes, or even increased defense contribution requirements to pressure rival countries—both enemies and allies—to distance China and Russia, reduce military support for Iran and North Korea, and to extract economic concessions. He has also promised to reduce the national military budget, but his initiatives seem contradictory to this objective. Trump is pressuring South Korea and the European Union to increase their military contributions, and Panama, Denmark (Greenland), and Canada to gain access to resources and control over sea routes and strategic territories. Turkey could be supported in a pro-Atlantic orientation to maintain regional stability, and Israel is an exception to the America First doctrine. US diplomacy should aim for a constructive relationship between the United States, Europe, Ukraine, and Russia, as cooperation with the latter and a peace agreement in Ukraine could prevent direct confrontation or the development of nuclear weapons by Kyiv, while also helping to resolve other international conflicts.

Keywords: Donald Trump, United States of America, Global Security, Peace through Strength, Ukraine War, European Union, Europe, NATO, Dual Enlargement, European Defense, Russia, Eurasia, China, South Korea, North Korea, Taiwan, Middle East, Turkey, Israel, Arctic, Canada, Panama, Greenland, Denmark, Military Spending, Tariffs, Taxes, Cooperation, International Relations, Trade War, International Conflicts.