Ali RASTBEEN
Executive summary: The BRICS group has a significant economic weight, but its geopolitical influence remains limited. Its enlargement (BRICS+) increases its representativeness while strengthening its heterogeneity. The de-collarisation strategy — based on local currency transactions, the diversification of foreign reserves and the development of alternative payment systems — remains gradual and partial, with the dollar retaining a dominant position at the moment. BRICS advocates reform of international institutions and creates alternatives, such as the New Development Bank and various sectoral forums, which, however, remain modest in the face of established institutions. The United States maintains undisputed military supremacy, with an unparalleled budget and power projection capability, while the influence of BRICS, lacking a common military alliance and relying more on bilateral partnerships and regional deterrence, rests primarily on a soft diplomatic balance rather than a coercive force. The United States also retained a significant lead in soft power, but lost some of its moral chandelier, while the BRICS gradually improved their image, intensifying competition for international legitimacy. The emergence of BRICS marks less the brutal end of American unity than a transition to a more polycentric and complex world order, known as “hybrid”, combining multipolar, bipolar elements — notably China-American rivalry — and residues of unity in key areas such as finance or defence. To play a central role, BRICS will have to overcome their internal contradictions, while the United States will have to accept a sharing of global leadership and resume multilateralism, as no actor can now impose its rules alone, as cooperation remains essential to avoid anarchy. The challenge is whether this emerging multipolarity will lead to increased cooperation or to stronger rivalries and chaotic fragmentation.
Keywords: International system, BRICS, BRICS+, enlargement, Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, multipolar international order, unilateralism, United States of America, West, G7, international institutions, UN, diplomacy, geopolitical, defence, economy, de-dollarization, technological rivalries, alliances, South-South cooperation, soft power, recomposition, multilateralism, hybrid order.
Abstract: The BRICS group has significant economic weight, but its geopolitical influence remains limited. Its expansion (BRICS+) increases its representativeness while also accentuating its heterogeneity. The de-dollarization strategy—based on transactions in local currencies, diversification of foreign exchange reserves, and the development of alternative payment systems—remains gradual and partial, with the dollar continuing to hold a dominant position for the time being. The BRICS advocate reform of international institutions and have created alternatives, such as the New Development Bank and sectoral forums, which remain modest compared to established institutions. The United States retains undisputed military supremacy, with an unparalleled budget and power-projection capabilities, while the influence of the BRICS—lacking a common military alliance and relying instead on bilateral partnerships and regional deterrence—rests more on diplomatic soft balancing than on coercive force. The United States also maintains a clear lead in soft power but has lost some of its moral authority, while the BRICS are gradually improving their image, intensifying competition for international legitimacy. The rise of the BRICS signals less an abrupt end to American unipolarity than a transition toward a more polycentric and complex world order, described as “hybrid,” combining multipolar and bipolar elements—particularly the Sino-American rivalry—with remnants of unipolarity in key domains such as finance and defense. To play a central role, the BRICS will need to overcome their internal contradictions, while the United States will have to accept a sharing of global leadership and return to multilateralism, as no single actor can impose its rules alone and cooperation remains essential to avoid anarchy. The key question is whether this emerging multipolarity will lead to greater cooperation or to intensified rivalries and chaotic fragmentation.
Key-words: International system, BRICS, BRICS+, enlargement, Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, multipolar international order, unilateralism, United States of America, West, G7, international institutions, UN, diplomacy, geopolitics, defense, economy, de-dollarization, technological rivalries, alliances, South–South cooperation, soft power, recomposition, multilateralism, hybrid order.
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